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Iron Condor Explained — Strike Selection, Real Numbers and the Risk Nobody Mentions

The iron condor is usually sold as a high-probability income strategy, which is true and incomplete. It wins often and loses badly, by design. This walks through the four legs with real NIFTY strikes, the exact breakevens, and the risk-reward arithmetic that decides whether the high win rate is actually worth anything.

What an Iron Condor Actually Is

An iron condor is a bet that the index stays inside a range. You collect premium by selling an out-of-the-money put and an out-of-the-money call, then spend part of that premium buying a further out-of-the-money put and call as protection.

The two short options are where the income comes from. The two long options — the "wings" — are insurance: they cap what a large move can cost you. What you are left with is a defined-risk position that profits from the index doing nothing in particular.

The four legs (NIFTY spot 24,400, monthly expiry)

Net credit = (85 − 45) + (80 − 42) = ₹78 per unit, or ₹5,070 on one lot of 65.

Key Insight

An iron condor is a short strangle with insurance. That single sentence explains every difference between the two. The condor collects less premium, because the wings cost money. In exchange the loss is capped, and Indian brokers block far less margin — which is the real reason retail traders use condors rather than naked strangles.

The Numbers That Actually Matter

With NIFTY at 24,400 and the legs above, the arithmetic is fixed the moment you enter. Nothing about it depends on your view.

Per unitPer lot (65)
Net credit received₹78₹5,070
Maximum profit₹78₹5,070
Maximum loss₹122₹7,930
Lower breakeven24,122
Upper breakeven24,678
Profit zone width556 points≈ ±1.14%

Maximum profit is the credit, kept in full if the index expires anywhere between 24,200 and 24,600. Maximum loss is the spread width minus the credit: (200 − 78) × 65 = ₹7,930, reached if the index closes beyond either wing.

Where the trade makes and loses money at expiry
Below 24,000−₹7,930Max loss
24,000–24,122Loss shrinkingLower wing
24,122–24,678ProfitProfit zone
24,678–24,800Loss growingUpper wing
Above 24,800−₹7,930Max loss

The full profit zone is 24,122 to 24,678 — a band of roughly ±1.14% around spot. That is the entire margin for error.

Watch Out

You are risking ₹7,930 to make ₹5,070. That ratio means the trade must win about 61% of the time just to break even. A strategy advertised as "80% probability" sounds comfortable until you notice that a single maximum loss erases roughly one and a half maximum wins. The high win rate is not an edge on its own — it is the price of the poor payoff.

How to Choose the Strikes

Every strike decision is the same trade-off in a different costume: wider strikes win more often and pay less; narrower strikes pay more and lose more often. There is no setting that improves both.

ChoiceEffect on creditEffect on win rateWhen it makes sense
Short strikes further OTMLowerHigherYou want to be wrong less often
Short strikes nearer ATMHigherLowerIV is high and you expect a contraction
Wider wingsSlightly higherUnchangedAccepting more max loss for more credit
Narrower wingsSlightly lowerUnchangedCapital efficiency, tighter max loss
Monthly expiryHigherSimilarMore vega, slower decay, room to manage
Weekly expiryLowerSimilarFaster theta, far harsher gamma near the end

A common starting point is to place the short strikes around one standard deviation from spot — roughly where the delta is 0.15 to 0.20 — and set the wings 200 points beyond. That is a convention rather than a rule, and it should move with implied volatility.

Key Insight

Enter when implied volatility is high, not low. The condor is short vega — it profits when IV falls. Selling a condor in a calm market means collecting thin premium while remaining fully exposed to an expansion. Our vega guide covers why that asymmetry bites hardest exactly when the market feels safest.

What the Greeks Say About It

An iron condor has a consistent Greek signature, and reading it tells you exactly what you are exposed to.

GreekSignWhat it means for you
ThetaPositiveYou earn every day the index does nothing
VegaNegativeA volatility spike hurts before the index has even moved
GammaNegativeLosses accelerate as the index approaches a short strike
DeltaNear zero at entryDirectionally neutral — until it is not

Positive theta and negative gamma always travel together. You are paid daily to carry the risk of a sudden move, and the closer expiry gets, the more violently that risk expresses itself. Theta and gamma cover both sides of that bargain.

Managing the Position

Take profit early

Many experienced sellers close at around 50% of maximum profit rather than holding to expiry. Squeezing the last ₹2,500 out of a ₹5,070 credit means carrying the position through the highest-gamma days of its life. The remaining reward rarely justifies that.

Decide the exit before entering

The dangerous moment is when the index touches a short strike. Losses are accelerating, and the instinct is to wait for a bounce. Deciding in advance — for instance, exiting if the loss reaches the size of the credit — converts an emotional decision into a mechanical one.

Understand what adjustments actually do

Rolling the untested side closer collects extra credit but narrows the profit zone, increasing the chance of being caught by a reversal. Rolling the tested side out buys time at the cost of a larger position. Neither removes risk; both reshape it. An adjustment made to avoid admitting a loss usually enlarges it.

Watch Out

The failure mode is size, not strategy.Iron condors go wrong when a run of small wins encourages larger positions, and then one gap delivers the maximum loss on all of them at once. The strategy's win rate makes over-sizing feel justified right up until the session where it is not.

When an Iron Condor Is the Wrong Trade

Where to Go Next

Build the strikes on live data

The option chain shows live premiums and IV per strike, so you can price a condor at current levels instead of the illustrative numbers used here.

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