Iron Condor Explained — Strike Selection, Real Numbers and the Risk Nobody Mentions
The iron condor is usually sold as a high-probability income strategy, which is true and incomplete. It wins often and loses badly, by design. This walks through the four legs with real NIFTY strikes, the exact breakevens, and the risk-reward arithmetic that decides whether the high win rate is actually worth anything.
What an Iron Condor Actually Is
An iron condor is a bet that the index stays inside a range. You collect premium by selling an out-of-the-money put and an out-of-the-money call, then spend part of that premium buying a further out-of-the-money put and call as protection.
The two short options are where the income comes from. The two long options — the "wings" — are insurance: they cap what a large move can cost you. What you are left with is a defined-risk position that profits from the index doing nothing in particular.
Net credit = (85 − 45) + (80 − 42) = ₹78 per unit, or ₹5,070 on one lot of 65.
Key Insight
The Numbers That Actually Matter
With NIFTY at 24,400 and the legs above, the arithmetic is fixed the moment you enter. Nothing about it depends on your view.
| Per unit | Per lot (65) | |
|---|---|---|
| Net credit received | ₹78 | ₹5,070 |
| Maximum profit | ₹78 | ₹5,070 |
| Maximum loss | ₹122 | ₹7,930 |
| Lower breakeven | 24,122 | — |
| Upper breakeven | 24,678 | — |
| Profit zone width | 556 points | ≈ ±1.14% |
Maximum profit is the credit, kept in full if the index expires anywhere between 24,200 and 24,600. Maximum loss is the spread width minus the credit: (200 − 78) × 65 = ₹7,930, reached if the index closes beyond either wing.
The full profit zone is 24,122 to 24,678 — a band of roughly ±1.14% around spot. That is the entire margin for error.
Watch Out
How to Choose the Strikes
Every strike decision is the same trade-off in a different costume: wider strikes win more often and pay less; narrower strikes pay more and lose more often. There is no setting that improves both.
| Choice | Effect on credit | Effect on win rate | When it makes sense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short strikes further OTM | Lower | Higher | You want to be wrong less often |
| Short strikes nearer ATM | Higher | Lower | IV is high and you expect a contraction |
| Wider wings | Slightly higher | Unchanged | Accepting more max loss for more credit |
| Narrower wings | Slightly lower | Unchanged | Capital efficiency, tighter max loss |
| Monthly expiry | Higher | Similar | More vega, slower decay, room to manage |
| Weekly expiry | Lower | Similar | Faster theta, far harsher gamma near the end |
A common starting point is to place the short strikes around one standard deviation from spot — roughly where the delta is 0.15 to 0.20 — and set the wings 200 points beyond. That is a convention rather than a rule, and it should move with implied volatility.
Key Insight
What the Greeks Say About It
An iron condor has a consistent Greek signature, and reading it tells you exactly what you are exposed to.
| Greek | Sign | What it means for you |
|---|---|---|
| Theta | Positive | You earn every day the index does nothing |
| Vega | Negative | A volatility spike hurts before the index has even moved |
| Gamma | Negative | Losses accelerate as the index approaches a short strike |
| Delta | Near zero at entry | Directionally neutral — until it is not |
Positive theta and negative gamma always travel together. You are paid daily to carry the risk of a sudden move, and the closer expiry gets, the more violently that risk expresses itself. Theta and gamma cover both sides of that bargain.
Managing the Position
Take profit early
Many experienced sellers close at around 50% of maximum profit rather than holding to expiry. Squeezing the last ₹2,500 out of a ₹5,070 credit means carrying the position through the highest-gamma days of its life. The remaining reward rarely justifies that.
Decide the exit before entering
The dangerous moment is when the index touches a short strike. Losses are accelerating, and the instinct is to wait for a bounce. Deciding in advance — for instance, exiting if the loss reaches the size of the credit — converts an emotional decision into a mechanical one.
Understand what adjustments actually do
Rolling the untested side closer collects extra credit but narrows the profit zone, increasing the chance of being caught by a reversal. Rolling the tested side out buys time at the cost of a larger position. Neither removes risk; both reshape it. An adjustment made to avoid admitting a loss usually enlarges it.
Watch Out
When an Iron Condor Is the Wrong Trade
- Before a scheduled event. Budget, RBI policy, election counts. You are short volatility into a known catalyst, and the gap risk is exactly what the strategy cannot absorb.
- In a low-IV market. Thin credit, unchanged risk. The payoff ratio becomes worse than the already-unfavourable baseline.
- When you have a directional view. A condor deliberately discards direction. If you think the index is going somewhere, a spread expresses that better.
- On expiry day. Gamma dominates, and the profit zone can be crossed and re-crossed within minutes. See gamma for why the final hours behave differently.
Where to Go Next
- Theta — the income side of the trade
- Vega — why IV level decides whether the entry is any good
- Gamma — why the last few days are the dangerous ones
- India VIX — the fastest read on whether premium is rich or thin
Build the strikes on live data
The option chain shows live premiums and IV per strike, so you can price a condor at current levels instead of the illustrative numbers used here.
Open Live Option Chain